Economics
What ROI can I realistically expect?
Mining ROI ranges from -60% (UK grid, daily sell) to +500% (solar, Smart Exit at 10× alt season). See scenario breakdowns with historical proof.
ROI depends heavily on your exit strategy and electricity cost. The difference between strategies is dramatic — grounded in historical alt season data:
| Scenario | Energy | Exit Strategy | Alt Season Rally | Typical 10yr ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | £0.05 | Smart Exit | 3×–5× (most cycles) | +50% to +150% |
| Moderate | £0.05 | Smart Exit | 7× (2017/2021) | +150% to +300% |
| Strong cycle | £0.05 | Smart Exit | 10×+ (peak alt season) | +300% to +500% |
| Heat offset | £0.02-0.03 eff. | Smart Exit | 7× (2017/2021) | +250% to +400% |
| Break-even | £0.10-0.15 | Daily Sell | N/A (no hold) | ±0% (covers costs) |
| Unprofitable | £0.26 (UK grid) | Daily Sell | N/A (no hold) | -30% to -60% |
🎯 Historical proof these ROI ranges are realistic: In the last cycle (2020–2021), RVN rallied 28×, ETC rallied 35×, ERG rallied 36×, and DCR rallied 21× from their bear market lows. A miner who accumulated any of these coins during the bear and sold at even 50% of the peak would have achieved the "Strong cycle" returns above.
Key insights:
- Daily selling is rarely profitable — at any electricity rate, it barely covers costs or loses money
- The exit strategy matters more than the rig — even the cheapest rig can return 150%+ with a modest 7× alt season exit
- Two cycles compound — over 10 years you experience ~2 full market cycles, each an opportunity to accumulate cheaply and exit at peaks
- Alt season multipliers are not Bitcoin price increases — these are altcoin rallies from bear lows, which happen in every cycle
ℹ️ All figures assume green/solar electricity at £0.05/kWh. Use the calculator to model your exact scenario with different rigs, tokens, and strategies.
🎯 UK tax bonus: If mining is your trade, the rig cost (up to £1M via AIA) and all electricity are deductible expenses. A basic-rate taxpayer saves ~20% on these costs, effectively boosting ROI by thousands of pounds vs DCA buying which has zero deductions. See the Tax & Regulation FAQs for details.